EVERYTHING IS THE SAME AND EVERYTHING IS CHANGING

As for the American tariff, which is the topic of the day in Brazilian politics and economy, the seminar organized by the influential Council of the Americas and FIESP on the role of the private sector in relations with the United States was significant. Present businessmen from the two countries, but also Chancellor Mauro Vieira, who exposed the Brazilian position and the former US Ambassador to Brazil, Thomas Shannon. Everyone lowering the ball, looking for dialogue, indicating solutions like the President of JBS, who has 75,000 employees there, but it was Shannon who said clearly: he has to convince Trump that the data he uses are wrong and harm his voters and the US. Simple as that. And then the question is, who will put the stew in the cat. Everyone insists that Bolsonaro's issue and his coup attempt has nothing to do with the subject, but on the other hand this is the issue whose rope is being stretched all the time. While it is looking for a practical solution on the economic issue, the government is showing everywhere that the tariff conflict is good for its electoral objectives. It gets difficult. It seems that there are people rooting for the worse, the better. In the coming days there will be a public hearing in Washington regarding the discrimination of North American exports to Brazil, the so-called article 301, which will be an interesting test to see how much progress can be made.

The fact is that no one is standing still. Companies are turning around as they can, and the government, which is the negotiator, with its hands tied, largely by ineptie, ideology and economic stress, in addition to the destructuring of the parliamentary system. Looking for allies abroad is difficult, because everyone is having similar difficulties. India, which received an important Brazilian business mission a few days ago, is receiving a 50% tariff because it imports oil from Russia. And the peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict, whose show we watched two weeks ago, are where they have always been: more war, less peace. And so, India, which with the peace in Ukraine and the eventual fall of sanctions against Russia would have solved the problem, can do nothing.

Peace in the Middle East is also not close and the conflict in Gaza, provoked by Hamas terrorists and exacerbated by Netanyahu's government, is splashing around the world. Iran was accused by Australia of fomenting attacks on synagogues there, and broke diplomatic relations. In Africa, conflicts in the Sahel region continue. And China, quietly, exports more and more and silently negotiates an agreement with Trump.

Returning to Brazil, both Ambassador Shannon and former Minister Jobim, in another matter, agree that as long as Lula does not sit down with Trump at the White House and hit the pointers, things continue as they are, with little chance of changing. But, we are in times when everything can also change.