OF THE DAY AFTER THE TARIFF

From the popular point of view, this situation reminds us of an anecdote of Minas Gerais politics: when a young man asks, surprised by the fact that his wife is, after nine months, about to give birth, urgent help to a politician, he answers: if you are surprised after nine months, imagine me, who I just found out. At the rational end, we are dealing with a phenomenon known in game theories such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, (https://maisretorno.com/portal/termos/d/dilema-dos-prisioneiros), difficult to solve, but not impossible. The queue went, with greater or lesser satisfaction of the parties, agreements were made with Japan, Vietnam, EU, Indonesia, Philippines, negotiations with China are underway and our neighbor Argentina received a visit from the US Secretary of the Treasury to generals and the Secretary of Security. No tariff punishment and a conversation about visa elimination for the people of Buenos Aires.

One hour we will find a solution, that is, at the time that suits the USA. Until then we will have a shock in our economy as a whole and in companies, especially those that have business there, very strong. Reducing the size of the loss in public and reversing the order of magnitude of the economic problem to wrap ourselves in the national flag does not solve anything. On the contrary, it makes solutions difficult in companies and, worst of all: the Government has to take any and all measures now, the same goes for Congress, due to this situation. In fact, not even from a tax, labor and public finance management point of view is this happening. Check out the letter from the largest automakers in Brazil to the government about facilitating the import of Chinese cars. It seems that certain Government measures are more to weaken companies than to strengthen them to face the situation. In fact, there is no news that, apart from the endless conversations in the MDIC, the business sector has participation in the contingency plan leaving on August 1st. And frankly, helping companies with the interest that the government is offering is burying companies instead of saving them.

In the negotiation process, business entities, which have not organized their presence in the US in the past, outside the parties in NY of the Brazil-USA Chamber, with the Supreme Court and politicians present, will have to go after the loss and hire competent lobists and law firms. Sector by sector, as ABIMAQ and EMBRAER did. And more, prepare for Brazilian negotiators a list of what to offer in return. Rare earths, which we do not know because we do not invest in research and technology and which already have a Chinese predominance, will be one of the items. Although we have a lot of investments there, JBS has 80,000 employees in its factories, this may be another item. And ethanol, without a doubt. Iron, steel, aluminum, auto parts, cellulose. Who is willing to lose the rings so that the country is saved? According to the history of intra-company relations in Brazil, the greatest enemy is at home and not outside. We need unity in economic objectives to negotiate well.