FROM THE US BACKYARD AND OPPORTUNITIES

If any unwary still had doubts about what the US wants in the Western Hemisphere, of which Brazil is part, it's over. In his National Security Strategy, published by the White House exactly a week ago, it was explicitly written that the US is reapplying the Monroe doctrine of the year 1823, reaffirmed by the government of Theodore Roosevelt in 1902, the doctrine of the great club, applied on several occasions on the continent, with military interventions or subversive actions, such as support for military coups. Summary: this is the backyard of the USA, where they have strategic interests, and will exercise these interests by all means. Visible and invisible.

The Trump Doctrine leaves no more doubts, in fact what he has shown since the beginning of his government, that they will want to reconquer Latin America for their interests, especially economic ones. This also means that they will slow the expansion of competitors, especially Chinese and Europeans. Specifically how Brazil will balance these relations, with the largest buyer and investor being China, with North American interests, is the million dollar question. And how the US will prevent the implementation of the Mercosur-EU agreement. There is no shortage of diplomats in Itamaraty to find solutions, but the decision is up to the Planalto Palace. The US doesn't look at the color of the cat since it hunts for them. They tolerate the left, as long as it is in favor of the US.

From a business point of view, North American companies will be more aggressive in the areas of energy, infrastructure concessions, ports and airports, telecommunications, technology and intellectual property and in the area of military cooperation. In the next concessions in the energy area, where Chinese and Spaniards dominate today, the government will have US participants and will be pressured not to give more space to the Chinese. It is good to remember the episode of the participation of Southern Electric and AES in CEMIG and the pressure that governments suffered when they resisted the advance of these companies. The negotiations will be hard, they will include all fields and if we don't have a strategy, including knowing when we lose our fingers so as not to lose our hand, and this in an electoral year, it will be very complex and difficult.

In the military area, where Americans do not transfer technologies and Brazil cooperates more with Europe, there will be another battlefield. Let's remember how was the purchase process of the Amazon surveillance system, SIVAM. And also the listening of President Dilma by the Americans in Obama's democratic government. See how Argentina's recent purchase of F16 planes was. Greater integration to combat terrorism and drug trafficking will also be on the agenda, including joint operations.

Time also to take advantage of opportunities. Glass half full, half empty.