OF THE WORLD AS IT IS AND NOT AS IT WILL BE

To understand the future of the business world, that is, the markets, the experience of the past and the reality of today are fundamental values. The entrepreneur's understanding of the macro-political environment, both internally and internationally, is fundamental, but it is also essential to understand specifically his market. I'm not talking about the financial market, but the market for its products and services.

The news that China reached a trade surplus of almost 1 trillion dollars last year, that is, 15 times more than Brazil, and filled the cash register, while the United States has a deficit of trillions, simply says that the war against China, which future President Trump announces, changes its figure. The Chinese have cash and achieved this result by absolute technological and commercial competence. We are continuously despising the managerial and technological advancement of Chinese companies. They use the most advanced management techniques, using all the wisdom of Confuncius and his rich history. The Chinese have not advanced now, they were already advanced in the 15th century, when Marco Polo discovered them.

But the biggest concern today is with the Trump 2 government. The expectation is that you comply with what you say. No popular proverb applies to him, neither that of a dog that barks does not bite, nor that of which the caravan passes and the dogs bark. The unpredictability is great, but there is a new element in his mandate. The influence of billionaires led by the richest man in the world, Musk. Trump's inauguration costs 1 billion reais, financed by businessmen. North American policies will be guided essentially by a group of billionaires. Ideological or state interests will be subjugated to the interests and ideas of individuals and their companies.

We've already seen this movie. In Central America with United Fruits, in Chile, with ITT, etc. But this time with different shapes and with even greater strength. This game has already begun in Europe, with Musk directly interfering in German and British politics. And with the dollar strengthened, another instrument of pressure, the situation gets complicated.

Brazil is not vulnerable because the co-occupant of the Alvorada Palace treated Musk, who even has a position in the Trump government, with a swear word. It is vulnerable because there are cracks in democratic institutions. Also its political governance system does not offer security and monetary stability, but an uncontrolled spending. And the economic base depends on the commodity market.

The policies of the Trump administration will greatly affect the most economically vulnerable and the fragile in their political bases. The Lula government lasts another 2 years, Trump's, four. And Xi's, until his death.