FROM DONBAS, UKRAINE TO BRAZIL

The end of a war, something that Brazil fortunately does not know, ceases with an agreement in which no one is a winner, and continues long after, but very much, with psychological and physical sequelae of those who fought and their families, in addition to the reconstruction of the country.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine may in its first step end with an agreement sponsored by the US directly with Russia, with notorious marginalization of Europeans, in the coming weeks. The attempt, in August, with the meeting between Trump and Putin, continues and more and more is appearing the notorious fact that Ukraine, without US support, cannot defeat Russia, that Europeans bear the cost of war beyond their financial capacity and that also Russia, even losing thousands of soldiers, resisted, with the support of China, the sanctions and pressure of the West and conquered 20% of the Ukrainian territory.

And that's where the cat twists its tail: Donbas. The conquest of this territory fatally weakens Ukraine and its economic capacity and strengthens the Russian economy. Donbas is the São Paulo of Ukraine. Steel industry, chemical, tractors, coal mines and minerals, all this leaves Ukraine and stays with the Russians. And more, strategic accesses through the Black Sea to Crimea, already annexed before by Russia, completing a fundamental logistics route for Russian strengthening and the future weakening of Ukraine.

If we add to this that Trump has already made an agreement with Ukraine for the US to participate in the exploration of critical minerals, the question is how is the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war. The plans are already made and will require a trillion dollars. Part of this funding comes from frozen Russian funds, European loans and the World Bank. In fact, Europe will stop investing in war, to invest in development. And Russia returns to the world, perhaps even to the G8, without sanctions and strengthened.

In Brazil, which has more than 500,000 Ukrainians and their descendants living here, the trade in fertilizers and steel products will resume and re-export, from the current 50 million dollars, to reach the pre-war limit of 250 million. But the war in Ukraine, from a military point of view, totally changed the way of war. Drone. And according to the newspaper the State of São Paulo, the Ukrainians are already teaching the Brazilian army the war with drones, in which apparently we are well behind. Ukraine was also the world's barn and the supply of wheat to Brazil, in addition to fertilizers, for what we depend on Russia today, should be important again. In summary, the end of the conflict, which cost millions of lives, 4 million Ukrainians left the country, trillions of dollars, will reorganize world geopolitics, but will have profound effects on economic relations, especially in Europe, which ran out of Russian gas. Everything has changed.