OF SOUTH AMERICAN NEIGHBORS AND THEIR PROBLEMS

The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine affect us, but they are far away. But the attacks on alleged drug trafficking boats on the Venezuelan coast and the concentration of US troops in the Caribbean are on the border of Brazil. The US decision to break with aid to combat coca production in Colombia is, again, on our border. The change of President in Peru, has already lost count of how many, it is also in the neighborhood. The election of the new President, right-wing, after 20 years of socialism, in Bolivia, is also. And the injection of no less than 20 billion dollars by the US into the Argentine government's cash on the eve of interim parliamentary elections, which will define Millei's governability, affects us directly and a lot. And there are more elections in November in Chile, a great investor in Brazil, the fight between right and left.

All these events are related to the US and its new policy towards South America. They are part of the competition with China, which ended through investments and loans, open trade, and expansion of its cultural centers, in addition to the military base in the extreme south of Argentina, becoming the main partner, replacing the USA. The Chinese today not only sustain with their imports of minerals and commodities the balances of payments of most South American countries, especially Brazil and Argentina, but are the main investors and job creators. The Americans lost the Chinese market for their commodities, replaced by Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, but also for their industrialized products.

The production of coca and bands of drug traffickers was left, especially in Colombia, where, with the Colombia Plan to combat them, the US invested more than 15 billion dollars with poor results in reducing the production and distribution of coca. Now, with the cession of cooperation between the two countries, how will the drug trafficking that is already expanding throughout Brazil be?

The reaction of the US, which cannot even allow China to take their resources or markets, was predictable, despite the fact that South American leaders claim they are surprised. Tariffs, military force, financial aid and more and more, even secret action, will be part of the menu so that, legitimately or not, they achieve their goals. Some actions, such as financial aid to Argentina, if they produce results, are good for Brazil. Solid Argentina is a good market for us. The fight with Colombia is bad, and very worrying. And with Venezuela, only God knows what can happen. You remember the last crisis on the border, thousands of refugees. It is good that chemistry works in the conversation in Malaysia between Lula and Trump, because the situation is very complex.

The question is simple: how to balance the need to be independent, including not only for economic and social purposes, but to keep the flame alive of nationalism, which brings votes and dependence that the country has on a partner or not like the USA??