OF OIL: NEED, BONANZA, VOLATILITY AND CURSE

The conflict between Iran and the United States has a name for most in Brazil: oil. Discovered in 1859 in Pennsylvania, USA, it is initially used to replace whale oil for public lighting, and then became the driving force for the development of the world, from the invention of the automobile in the early 20th century. Today, the world we live in would disappear without oil. Derivatives, in addition to gasoline, diesel and kerosene, there are thousands, such as fertilizers, medicines, plastics, without which there is no life on the planet. The energy transition proposal will take dozens of years and the conflict in the Middle East shows how we are still dependent on oil for the world to even work.

The world's largest producer is the USA, the Gulf countries are next. Brazil is the seventh with an average daily production of 4 million barrels. Oil is the second most important item on the agenda of Brazilian exports. If we compare the timeline of oil exploration in Brazil with other countries, we discover that from the discovery of the first field in Bahia in 1939, to the exploration with pre-salt platforms, deep waters, in 2010, there has been an extraordinary advance. And if we add to this the use of ethanol 50 years ago, today in mixture with gasoline at 30%, we see that energy policies were partially right.

The numerous conflicts in the oil areas shake the whole world. Be it the increase in the price of the barrel, as happened these days, from 80 dollars to the peak of 120 and then momentary stability around 100 dollars, or in 1970 the revolt of the Arab countries and Iran through OPEC, forcing a price increase that shook the world and its stability. In other words, those who have oil send and those who don't, obey. And oil is also an ally of gas, which moves homes and industrials. Remember Russia's gas-free Europe in the middle of the conflict in Ukraine.

In this context we have the problems of availability and price. The two are closely linked and there is no country in the world that is not affected by the conflict in Iran. Brazil produces more than Iran, but they have 13 times more reserves. And in our case, it seems that it is the fate that is reserved for us by the geniuses of the homeland, we have and produce oil, but we import 30% of diesel, 15% of gasoline, 70% of fertilizers and more gas. Our vulnerability is compared to European countries that have no oil, no gas, sometimes coal. And then the volatility that affects us is greater because it not only affects all costs, but above all our ability to produce and export. In fact, explaining, even remembering Lava Jato and our natural resources management policy, because we do not have and will not have in the next ten years downstream, the greater production of diesel, fertilizers and gasoline, is a matter of geniuses. Agriculture, depending on third-party fertilizers and diesel, not to mention armed conflicts, and being competitive, is proof that God is Brazilian, because the men who govern us do everything so that we have no future.