FROM THE NEW WORLD

There is no more forecast, they are two realities that, with all the resistance we have to changes, we have to accept because they are shaping the new paradigm of our daily lives: climate and technology.

The heat wave in the Southern Hemisphere and cold in the North, 157 extreme events on the planet, the highest temperature we have ever experienced, showed, with the force of nature, that we are simply not prepared for new climatic times. The issue is not the discussion, as at COP30 in Belém, but that the infrastructure around the world is not prepared for a new climate. Roads can't stand floods, power grids fall, fires multiply, houses and buildings were built for a type of time that no longer exists, hospitals are not prepared to receive patients in the face of extreme heat or cold. Governments allocate resources for the post-disaster, but few are investing to adapt the country to a climate environment totally different from the past. In fact, prevention gives few votes, and voters don't charge either. And recovery costs much more, even in human lives, but it suits everyone, due to lack of vision and courage to act. And the money is diverted to other priorities, such as weapons.

In the technological area, the second constant of our present and future, it took 15 years to create the necessary structure for the internet to reach millions of people. For the Smartphone, with internet use, it took 10 years. And OpenAI, or ChatGPT, to reach 800 million users per week at the end of the year, needed 2 years. Thus, AI, artificial intelligence researched for decades, but put on the market in two, as a consumer product, is the central technology of the industrial revolution that will change all aspects of the world economy. With its adoption as the master spring of development, requiring investments of 33 trillion USD in 5 years, according to McKinsey, the world GDP will increase by 4%, and that of the US, 5.4%.

The investments, in addition to technology and research, go to datacenters, large energy consumers (up to 10% of total energy consumption in the US) and water (also in the US in 2030, consumption will correspond to 1,200,000 Olympic pools). To produce chips, a trillion-year-old industry, needs copper, silicon and 17 other minerals. And a lot of money.

Those who lead this advance are the USA. Amazon, Google and Microsoft dominate 63% of the cloud platform market. China, 8%. In the use of AI, the Chinese are behind the US, even with the scare that DeepSeek gave. That is, the American domain is not technological, it will also be geoeconomic and political.

The question is how the smaller and SouthGlobal countries will adapt to this new reality. And that means the whole world, with the exception of the US and China. Welcome to the new era.

AI does not destroy one class of jobs, but creates another. The fact is that, to create new jobs, you need knowledge to use new technology. And this movement in Brazil is super delayed. That we are followers and little creators of technologies, there are exceptions that confirm the rule, is a fact. But that we are unprepared to follow technologies is another challenge. To begin with, the political leaders, from the top to the councilors, insist on adopting an ostrich posture. Technological leaders talk to each other in the academy, but they can't communicate with the world. And entrepreneurs, pressured by the tax and monetary situation, save what they can, waiting for a better environment to move forward.

In the climate area, the infrastructure is improving, including with investments in computing at INPE, but no one uses this information to plan structural changes, whether at the sectoral or regional level. We have those who know how to write, and those who can read.

There is a lot of joy with datacenters. It is worth seeing the movie Eddington, New Mexico, USA, a municipality that received a datacenter. Nobody talks about added value to the regional economy. They don't even ask if there is enough energy and energy infrastructure, see how the rains affect the energy supply throughout the country, if it is vulnerable and if it has water. See today the case of São Paulo with drought, without water. The concession system for both energy and water, wait and see what will happen to COPASA, weak and directed to the investor and not to the consumer. Datacenters are necessary, but they deserve care so that the joy of a mandate does not turn into sadness for the rest of life.