PLAYING WITH LIFE: VENEZUELA ATTACKING GUYANA AND BRAZIL

 

 

On our northern border with Venezuela and Guyana, the drums of war are increasingly beaten. The Venezuelan government has been following a plan to conquer 72% ofGuyana's territory point by point. And creating a climate of national unity, including arresting opponents of the project, which, looking at similar cases in history, clearly indicates that it has nothing to do with irrationality. Maduro has a clear military objective, which is to seize the territory called the Esequibo of Guyana, and a political one, which is to perpetuate himself in power. 

 

Venezuela has the military might to do this. As a paratchman, it takes over the border and nearby towns and creates a fait accompli. It can create guerrilla hotbeds and prolong the conflict for longer. One thing Maduro won't do is nothing. The reaction of Guyana's allies, whose military forces are meagre because the country is tiny, 680,000 people, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, do not scare Maduro. He wants to go down in history as someonewho, after 120 years, had the courage to dominate a territorythat by arbitration at the timebecame present-day Guyana. And to go down in history better than his predecessor, Hugo Chaves, whose shadow he seeks to get rid of, which is worth more than anything else. Anyone who knows Maduro knows that he is dealing with an unhinged man with purpose. 

 

The conflict, if it prospers, opens a Pandora's box of territorial disputes in Latin America. Even Brazil, which in 1898 lost part of the territory of Roraima to the British, who kept Guaiana as their colony, with arbitration by the thenKing of Italyand the most Brazilian lawyer Joaquim Nabuco, can claim. Not to mention the disputes between Bolivia and Chile and so many others that will appear. Not forgetting the Falkland Islands, or the Falklands, Argentina. With the eventual invasion of Venezuela, a precedent of unpredictable consequences is created. 

 

And we must not forgetthe involvement of extra-continental countries involved in the conflict. Maduro, whose alliancewith Russia, despite the Russian government's declarations in favor of a peaceful solution, is unpredictable, and on the other hand the United States, which already exploits oil on the Guyana side, that is, economically has already occupied the territory . What kind of war they will choose is notknown, but whatever it is, it will cause many deaths and spread blood across the rivers and Amazon forests. It can even affect the population of Brazilian border cities. 

 

Brazil is already involved in the last hair in the conflict. First, since the FHC government and more strongly in the four PT governments, we have gone from sympathy to absolute support for the implementationofChavismo in Venezuela. In the Temer government, we changed our attitude and led the expulsion of Venezuela from Mercosur. In Bolsonaro's government, we went from love to hate. We have even broken diplomatic relations. And so we have lost, by an unforgivable mistake from the point of view of foreign policy, the opportunity to even know what is happening in Venezuela.

Itis worth emphasizing, which has been seen in several seminars and debates at USP, that those who have in-depth knowledge of the situation in Venezuela are the Brazilian military. And here this knowledge cannot be overcome by political friendships to the detriment of the real military situation. 

 

With the arrival of the new Lula government, the love phase began again. It was this government that gave international approval and articulated the promise of a new phase of the Venezuelan government. Say in good faith, even with the promise not only of clean elections, but alsoof payment of the billionaire debt that the country has with Brazil.

 

Maduro, with his attitude on the issue of Guyana, has definitively buried the Brazilian government. It was not a simple betrayal. Maduro discredited Lula in the eyes of Brazilian public opinion. The opposition, which has always had the relationship between the PT governments and Venezuela, including the so-called grants, as a banner of incompetence and foreign policy and harmful to national interests, is celebrating. You don't even have to talk,thefacts are there.

 

And what's more, if the Brazilian government does not take very firm measures in the defense of its territory, certainly two dozen armored vehicles do notconvince anyone, it can be accused by the opposition of breaking constitutional precepts with unpredictable legal and political consequences. In other words, the crisis provoked by Maduro hits the deadlock on Brazilian politics. Including questioning our military capacity to act in defense of the country. Unless I'm mistaken, this is, after the Paraguayan War, the first probable conflict on our borders in 150 years.

 

Our ability to react is limited in terms of diplomatic dialogue, as the embassies in Caracas and Georgetown are without incumbents who have not yet been approved to take office due to the Senate's approval procedures. You can say in public that we want peace, but what it looks like right now, that Maduro wants blood, and that blood will spill out not only on the Brazilian government, but on the country as a whole. 

 

In this unfortunateepisodethat we are experiencing, alongside Hamas attacks in Israel, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it isbeing tested whether or not Brazil hasenough leadershipto prevent the conflict. Underestimating Maduro and his gang reminds us of how in history we have underestimated in our lifetime the irresponsible and populist leaders who led millions of people to their deaths.

 

All over the world, they believe in Lula's ability and in Brazilian diplomacy to avoid this conflict. And they expect them to do it. Theopposite scenario is absolutely terrifying.