FROM MY LAND AND YOUR BACKYARD

The United States attacked three allegedly Venezuelan drug trafficking boats and killed the crew members. They transferred 6500 soldiers to the Caribbean area. They took the visa from the President of Colombia because he participated in a demonstration in favor of Palestine. For Brazil, only 50% of tariffs and a few visas less. They continue with sanctions against Cuba. They arrest hundreds of Latin immigrants every day and deport them.

And the icing on the cake: they give 20 billion dollars for Argentina to solidify its economic structure.

Historically, for them, we, down from Rio Grande, are, in our land, their backyard. We are fundamental to geopolitical and economic security. President Monroe's policy a century ago determined this interest, which was later the basis of Theodore Roosvelt's policy, 1901-1909, of the great club. That is, confirmation of the backyard. There were several other episodes, such as the Alliance for Progress, Point 4, Operation Pan-American, invasions such as that of Grenada, Dominican Republic, coups d'état, ALCA, Iran-contras.

The fact for us, in Latin America, difficult to accept, is that we are fundamental to the existence and prosperity of the United States of America. And the current government is demonstrating this unequivocally. In the Biden administration it was also, as is the case of unequivocal and fundamental support to recognize Lula's election and before sending the Secretary of Defense to convince the Brazilian military to respect the result of the polls.

The knot is on how to find the win-win path and avoid maximum confrontation. They are the largest investor in the country, they have the obligation to defend their strategic and economic interests. We have two million Brazilians there, 1% of our population, and probably a saving of the rich of more than 400 billion dollars. One hundred and twenty thousand Americans work for Brazilian capital companies there.

In the political field they can't afford to have anti-American governments. See the case of Mexico, a left-wing President, much more than the Lula government, dialogues and finds ways. Ecuador, Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, are pro-USA. We have elections in Chile, which also did not confront, and in Peru. And the classic opponents Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua.

The plan to only assert themselves in "their backyard", especially with China and also Russia penetrating, has no sustainable future, including by new technologies and geopolitical division. There must be leaders who will find the path to development. While they gave 20 billion dollars to Milei, in a project in which few will earn a lot but in whose success no one believes, they could give 2 billion for the development of the region and would be more successful. There is a lack of leadership, there is an excess of arrogance and dialogue. And fight in the backyard, even of roosters, never ends well.

DA MINHA TERRA E DO SEU QUINTAL

Os Estados Unidos atacaram três barcos  alegadamente do narcotráfico venezuelano e mataram os tripulantes. Transferiram 6500 soldados para a área de Caribe. Tiraram o visto do Presidente da Colômbia porque participou de manifestação a favor da Palestina. Para o Brasil, só 50 % de tarifas e alguns vistos a menos. Continuam com  sanções contra Cuba. Prendem diariamente centenas de imigrantes latinos e os deportam. 

E a cereja no bolo: dão 20 bilhões de dólares para Argentina solidificar sua estrutura econômica.

Historicamente, para eles, nós, abaixa do Rio Grande, somos, na nossa terra, o quintal deles. Somos fundamentais para a segurança geopolítica e econômica. A política do Presidente Monroe há um século determinava esse interesse , que depois foi base da política de Theodore Roosvelt, 1901-1909, do grande porrete. Ou seja, confirmação do quintal. Houve vários outros episódios, como a Aliança para o progresso, Ponto 4, Operação Pan-americana, invasões como a de Grenada, República Dominicana, golpes de estado, ALCA, Irã-contras. 

 

O fato para nós, na América Latina, difícil de aceitar, é que somos fundamentais para a existencia e prosperidade dos Estados Unidos da América. E o atual governo está demonstrando isso de forma inequívoca. No governo Biden também foi, como é o caso do apoio inequívoco e fundamental para reconhecer a eleição do Lula e antes enviar o Secretário de Defesa para convencer os militares brasileiros de respeitarem o resultado de urnas.

O nó está em como achar o caminho de ganha-ganha e evitar o máximo de confronto. Eles são o maior investidor no país, tem a obrigação de defender seus interesses estratégicos e econômicos. Nos temos lá dois milhões de brasileiros, 1 % de nossa população, e provavelmente uma poupança dos ricos de mais de 400 bilhões de dólares. Cento e vinte mil norte-americanos trabalham para as empresas de capital brasileiro lá.

No campo político eles não se podem se dar ao luxo de ter governos antiamericanos. Veja o caso do México, uma Presidenta de esquerda, muito mais do que o governo Lula, dialoga e acha caminhos. Equador, Paraguay, Argentina, Bolívia, El Salvador, são pró EUA. Temos eleições no Chile, que também não confrontou, e no Peru. E os clássicos adversários Cuba, Venezuela, Nicarágua.

O plano de só se afirmarem no “seu quintal”, principalmente com a China e também a Rússia penetrando,  não tem futuro sustentável, inclusive pelas novas tecnologias e divisão geopolítica. Tem que ter líderes que encontrarão o caminho do desenvolvimento. Enquanto deram 20 bi de dólares para Milei, em um projeto em que poucos vão ganhar muito mas em cujo sucesso ninguém acredita, poderiam dar 2 bilhões para o desenvolvimento da região e teriam mais sucesso. Faltam lideranças, há excesso de prepotência e diálogo. E briga no quintal, mesmo de galos, nunca acaba bem.

FROM NEW YORK, NEW YORK

39 seconds in the corridor of a building, headquarters of the UN, where neither the escalator nor the teleprompter works, of an organization that refused the offer of a mega builder who later became President of the United States twice, the organization founded in San Francisco 80 years ago, changed the mood of Brazil's politics and economy. After those seconds, when the presidents of the USA and Brazil embraced, another 57 minutes of a speech passed explaining the Trump doctrine by Trump himself, when he a few minutes before finishing said he liked the lightning meeting with Lula in the hallway, liked Lula, and that the two will talk next week.

The surprise, which was not a surprise because the two diplomacies acted behind the scenes, which redeems Itamaraty from so many criticisms in recent times, was in the Brazilian delegation shown on TV, with Janja and Lula using their cell phones when Trump announced the meeting. That doesn't matter at all. The important thing was that Lula's speech was presidential and honored the country that always inaugurates the UN General Assembly. He defended his traditional convictions, multilateralism, the basis of our foreign policy, and criticized what had to be criticized. It was, in general terms, Lulinha peace and love. He even thanked, the author of these lines was moved, to the Jews who support a peaceful solution to the Gaza conflict. All that was missing was to wish Shana Tova, happy new year 5765, which we Jews celebrated exactly on the day of his speech.

Trump's speech was an accountability of his achievements in the aspects of national and foreign policy. He used harsh words, generally not used in presidential speeches in any country, about climate change, immigration, Venezuela, Europeans who buy Russian oil and gas, the mayor of London who is Muslim, former Presidents Biden and Obama. And he was mild with China, with his friends Putin and Natanhayu, by declaring himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. And very hard even with the UN.

The two speeches paradoxically put the world as it is today. You have to read them together to also understand, along with 39 seconds of encounter, how this world works. There can be no illusion of the full exercise of power and a little more by Trump and the USA.

It wasn't Lula who said when there will be a meeting with Trump to hit the pointers. It was Trump who determined. And now, even to the sound of Sinatra's New York to celebrate, the work begins. Preparing the agenda for this conversation, from which the two interlocutors should emerge victorious, is a gigantic job. Anyway, Lula, even if he doesn't get anything in relation to the tariffs, comes out as a statesman for the national and international public. And Trump, if he doesn't get anything, puts the blame on Lula. A lot of calm and clear definition is what interests Brazil, and not only the government.

DE NEW YORK, NEW YORK

 

39 segundos no corredor de um prédio, sede da ONU, onde não funciona a escada rolante e nem o teleprompter, de uma organização que recusou a oferta de um mega construtor que virou depois duas vezes Presidente dos Estados Unidos, a organização fundada em São Francisco há 80 anos, mudaram o humor da política e da economia do Brasil. Depois desses segundos, quando se abraçaram os presidentes dos EUA e do Brasil, passaram-se mais 57 minutos de um discursoexplicando a doutrina Trump pelo próprio Trump, quando ele uns minutos antes de terminar disse que gostou do encontro relâmpago com Lula no corredor, gostou do Lula, e que os dois vão conversar na próxima semana.

A surpresa, que não foi surpresa porque as duas diplomacias atuaram nos bastidores, o que redime o Itamaraty de tantas críticas nos últimos tempos, esteve na delegação brasileira mostrada na TV, com Janja e Lula usando o celular na hora que Trump anunciava o encontro. Isso não tem a mínima importância. O importante foi que o discurso de Lula foi presidencial e honrou o país que sempre inaugura a Assembleia-Geral da ONU. Defendeu suas convicções tradicionais, o multilaterismo, base de nosssa política externa, e criticou o que tinha que ser criticado. Foi, em termos gerais, o Lulinha paz e amor. Até agradeceu, o autor dessas linhas ficou emocionado, aos judeus que apoiam uma solução pacífica para o conflito de Gaza. Só faltou desejar Shana Tova, feliz ano novo 5765, que os judeus festejamos exatamente no dia do seu discurso.

O discurso de Trump, foi uma prestação de contas de seus feitos nas vertentes de política nacional e externa. Usou palavras duras, em geral não usadas em discursos presidenciais em qualquer país, sobre mudanças climáticas, imigração, Venezuela, europeus que compram petróleo e gás russo, o prefeito de Londres que é muçulmano, os ex-Presidentes Biden e Obama. E foi brando com a China, com os amigos Putin e Natanhayu, ao declarar-se merecedor do Prêmio Nobel de Paz. E muito duro mesmo com a ONU.

Os dois discursos paradoxalmente colocam o mundo como hoje é. Tem que lê-los juntos para entender também, junto com 39 segundos de encontro, como funciona este mundo. Não se pode ter ilusão alguma do exercício pleno do poder e um pouco mais por Trump e os EUA. 

Não foi Lula quem disse quando vai ter o encontro com Trump para acertar os ponteiros. Foi Trump que determinou. E agora, mesmo ao som de  New York de Sinatra para festejar, começa o trabalho. Preparar a pauta dessa conversa, da qual os dois interlocutores devem sair vitoriosos, é um trabalho gigantesco. De qualquer maneira, Lula, mesmo que não consiga nada em relação às tarifas, sai como estadista para o público nacional e internacional. E Trump, se não conseguir nada, põe a acculpa no Lula. Muita calma e  definição clara é o que interessa ao Brasil, e não só ao governo.

FROM THE AGREEMENT TO OTHERS, UE- MERCOSUR

In the midst of the United States tariff, the government is early celebrating two important trade agreements for Brazil, which are the conclusion of MERCOSUR's agreement with the EU and EFTA, Switzerland, Norway and others. These agreements came out more because of the needs of our partners to increase their business with MERCOSUR than for us to have the opportunities to sell more to these countries. The agreement with the Europeans, which met a lot of resistance, came out because they pushed down the cloth clauses that guarantee European farmers their privileged status without allowing us to move forward with our agricultural exports. More or less like this: if you want the agreement, that's how we can do it. If you don't like it, there's no agreement. And the anxious Brazil, negotiating for 25 years, wanting to show that it does not depend only on the USA, and before the Americans pressure Europeans not to make the agreement, it accepted to show how efficient this government is.

The agreement has to be good for both sides. The fact is that both Europeans and Swiss and Norwegians are better prepared to take advantage of the agreements than both Brazilians and other MERCOSUR partners. In addition to being our important business partners, they are great investors. Their companies survived the Matarazzo and many other companies and did not give up on Brazil. They learned to deal with bureaucracy, corruption, and the particularities of the market. And the profits generated in Brazil have always been important for the headquarters. And let's be clear, there are few countries in the world that allow the foreign investor so many facilities, incentives, money transfers, royalty payment and a market of 210 million people like Brazil. The gringo here is at home.

It is worth mentioning here the case of Norway, a kingdom with the largest sovereign fund in the world, a large investor in the area of energy and metals in Brazil, with much greater interests in the Amazon than Brazil itself. The Amazon fund, which also has the participation of Germany, is not to protect the Amazon for Brazilians, but to protect Norwegian capital there. Under the mantle of lamb are wolf policies, do not forget that the Nobel Peace Prize is given by Norway, which, either we do not understand, or we accept because some have interest.

But the most worrying thing is that we signed these agreements but we have no development plan adjacent to these instruments. We will succumb to the plans of stronger partners, even in the opening of markets. That is, they, with the crisis of their companies, which will transfer technologies and analog generation equipment to Brazil, will dictate our development because we have no plan but to clap when we offer them more facilities, more resources, more subsidies, more market. This is the reality of our future. And China quietly hopes that this will bear fruit.

DO ACORDO PARA OUTROS, UE- MERCOSUL

No meio do tarifaço dos Estados Unidos, o governo está precocemente celebrando dois acordos comerciais importantes para Brasil, que são a conclusão de acordo com do MERCOSUL com a UE e com a EFTA, Suíça, Noruega e outros. Essesacordos saíram mais por necessidades de nossos parceiros aumentarem seus negócios com o MERCOSUL do que para nos termos a oportunidades de vender mais para esses países. O acordo com os europeus, que encontrou muita resistência, saiu porque empurraram abaixo do pano cláusulas que garantem aos agricultores europeus seu status privilegiado sem permitir que avancemos com nossas exportações agrícolas. Mais ou menos assim: se quiser o acordo, é assim que nós conseguimos fazer. Se não agrada, não tem acordo. E o Brasil ansioso,negociando há 25 anos, querendo mostrar que não depende somente dos EUA, eantes  que os americanos pressionem os europeus para não fazerem o acordo,aceitou para mostrar como este governo é eficiente.

O acordo tem que ser bom para os dois lados. O fato é que tanto os europeus comoos suíços e noruegueses estão mais bem preparados para tirar vantagens dos acordos do que tanto os brasileiros como os demais sócios do MERCOSUL. Além de serem nossos parceiros comerciais importantes, são grandes investidores. As empresas deles sobreviveram aos Matarazzo e muitas outras empresas e não desistiram do Brasil. Aprenderam a lidar com a burocracia, corrupção, e com asparticularidades do mercado. E os lucros gerados no Brasil sempre foram importantes para as matrizes. E vamos ser claros, são poucos os países do mundo que permitem ao investidor estrangeiro tantas facilidades, incentivos, transferências de dinheiro, pagamento de royalties e um mercado de 210 milhões de pessoas como o Brasil. O gringo aqui está em casa.

Cabe aqui mencionar o caso de Noruega, reino com o maior fundo soberano do mundo, grande investidor na área de energia e metais no Brasil, com interesses na Amazônia bem maiores do que o próprio Brasil. O fundo Amazônia, que tem participação também da Alemanha, não é para proteger a Amazônia para osbrasileiros, mas para proteger o capital norueguês por lá. Sob o manto de cordeiro são políticas de lobo, não se esqueça que o Prêmio Nobel da Paz é dado pela Noruega, que, ou não percebemos, ou aceitamos porque alguns têm interesse. 

Mas, o mais preocupante é que asssinamos esses acordos mas não temos nenhum plano de desenvolvimento adjacente a esses instrumentos. Vamos sucumbir aos planos de parceiros mais fortes, mesmo na abertura de mercados. Ou seja, eles,com a crise de suas empresas, que vão transferir tecnologias e equipamentos de geração analógica para o Brasil, vão ditar o nosso desenvolvimento porque nós não temos plano nenhum a não ser bater palmas quando lhes oferecemos mais facilidades, mais recursos, mais subsídios, mais mercado. Assim é a realidade do nosso futuro. E a China espera tranquila que isso lhe traga frutos.

 

OF COMMERCIAL VULNERABLE

The episode of the tariff can be the great opportunity for us, learning the lessons, to change our attitude and start working with a world-oriented, open and competitive Brazil project. Paradoxically, we should be grateful for the shock that the Trump administration is imposing on us, as long as we are prepared to change.

The departure of a hundred Brazilian businessmen to Washington last week, with the firm purpose of defending national interests, with some exceptions of very well prepared technical defenses, demonstrated more than ever that the king is naked. The rush after lobists and PR, who by the way are charging very high, shows more and more that we are not present in Washington. Beating in the chest that we have 200 years of relationship with the USA, among which everyone forgets the events of 64, does not help at all because nowadays we are not on the agenda. And, let's be frank, we didn't create a golden and deep relationship with American society. Carmen Miranda, Sérgio Mendes, Pelé and two million more Brazilians there do not replace the permanent presence of business entities. The entity we had 22 years ago died and no other business entity was established. APEX, which has an office in Miami, put at the head the father of Lieutenant Colonel Cid, a four-star general, a friend of Bolsonaro, who became known for his watch and jewelry transactions. And the promotion of Brazilian companies was left behind and the bill arrived.

Many of those who went on this visit complained bitterly about our embassy there. Complaints justified or not, the fact is that the diplomatic channels are "clogged", as an interlocutor said. It is interesting to observe that in the Lula 1 government these channels were fluid, even with a Republican extremist president like George Bush. What happened is that even in the Biden administration we have already started to move away from Washington and in the Trump administration we have practically reached the break.

The scary thing is how unprepared and disjointed we are. The business community is defending itself as it can, without realizing that the tariff hits around the world. In agriculture we are competitors of North American agriculture and they will want to win back the markets they lost to us. There is also the issue of big tech regulation, a subject that at the moment loses importance but is fundamental for the US. And on the political issue we have to understand that the reality is that the US does not want governments that confront their interests. Simple.

The North American flag in Bolsonaro demonstrations and the use of confrontation to increase popularity are two extreme elements that do not help in any way to solve the economic problems we are facing, whose dimension we have not yet realized and for which we are not prepared. The king is naked.