DOS SINOS DE PAZ E TAMBORES DE GUERRA

Ultimamente não tem dia que num lugar da terra não explodam mísseis, ataquemdrones e de vez enquanto lembremos que pessoas morrem. No último conflito entre Israel e Irã, morreram em Israel 28 pessoas e houve 3000 feridos, o Irã acionou 550 mísseis e 1000 drones, e morreram 610 iranianos. E agora teoricamente as partes vão sentar-se à mesa e acertar suas diferenças. O colunista do New York Times Thomas Friedman prevê que após os conflitos armados como os mencionados,além da Ucrânia, Gaza, Líbano, Síria, Iraque, Iêmen, Somália, Eritreia, Mali, Paquistão e Índia etc., os estados se organizam e venham novos governos que promovam a paz e o desenvolvimento. Os belicistas perdem para a paz.

Nesse dia a dia de ameaças bélicas, os preços do petróleo viraram uma preocupação constante. E alguns lugares críticos, como o estreito de Ormuz, por onde passa 30 % do petróleo mundial, ficaram em evidência. Paradoxalmente, os preços do petróleo baixaram, e as ações no mundo inteiro subiram. Quase podemos dizer que os conflitos armados são bons para os negócios. E nesse particular, a reunião da OTAN na Holanda esta semana, onde 32 países membros, sob pressão de Trump, decidem aumentar suas despesas militares para 5 % do PIB, muda o paradigma da próxima década de desenvolvimento. Enquanto até recentemente o motor de desenvolvimento eram os produtos e serviços de consumo, como smartphones, tecnologias de informação, novos automóveis, equipamentos médicos, smartTV etc., agora passam a ser tanques, fuzis, munições. O setor militar é infelizmente a vanguarda da tecnologia, mas para fins bélicos, e depois sobra alguma coisa para os sobreviventes, como foi o GPS, a internet e até o Pilates. É assustador, porque a decisão dos políticos de estarmos preparados para nos matarmos é mais importante do que o bem-estar da população, como disse oPrimeiro-ministro da Espanha, e é assustadora e preocupante para as novas gerações.

Provavelmente o rearmamento e os altos gastos militares gerarão crescimento doPIB. Onde está o ponto de inflexão quando os resultados desses investimentos são usados em destruição, ninguém fala. As empresas envolvidas neste esforço vão crescer, e o resto, como fica?

É interessante observar nesse paradoxo, como age a China, sem se envolver diretamente em conflitos, mas sem deixar de estar preocupada com a guerra de tarifas e sua competição com os EUA. Nem uma nem outra coisa desapareceu do mapa. Os mísseis nos céus do Oriente Médio não apagaram outros problemas,inclusive de mudanças climáticas, por sinal tocando a pele dos europeus e norte-americanos com altas temperaturas e incêndios.

E o Brasil? Com os desarranjos políticos e as contas públicas em estado de calamidade, ameaçando a própria democracia, só cabe repetir a crença popular: Deus é brasileiro.

 OF THE PEACE BELLS AND WAR DRUMS

Lately there is not a day that in a place on earth they don't explode missiles, attack drones and in the meantime let's remember that people die. In the last conflict between Israel and Iran, 28 people died in Israel and there were 3000 injured, Iran triggered 550 missiles and 1000 drones, and 610 Iranians died. And now theoretically the parties will sit at the table and settle their differences. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman predicts that after armed conflicts like those mentioned, in addition to Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Eritrea, Mali, Pakistan and India, etc., states will organize themselves and new governments come that promote peace and development. The belikers lose to peace.

In this day-to-day war threats, oil prices have become a constant concern. And some critical places, such as the Strait of Hormuz, where 30% of the world's oil passes, were in evidence. Paradoxically, oil prices fell, and stocks around the world rose. We can almost say that armed conflicts are good for business. And in particular, the NATO meeting in the Netherlands this week, where 32 member countries, under pressure from Trump, decide to increase their military spending to 5% of GDP, changes the paradigm of the next decade of development. While until recently the development engine was consumer products and services, such as smartphones, information technologies, new cars, medical equipment, smartTV, etc., now they are tanks, rifles, ammunition. The military sector is unfortunately the vanguard of technology, but for war purposes, and then there is something left for the survivors, such as GPS, the internet and even Pilates. It is frightening, because the decision of politicians to be prepared to kill ourselves is more important than the well-being of the population, as the Prime Minister of Spain said, and is frightening and worrying for the new generations.

Rearmament and high military spending will probably generate GDP growth. Where is the inflection point when the results of these investments are used in destruction, no one says. The companies involved in this effort will grow, and the rest, how is it?

It is interesting to observe in this paradox, how China acts, without engaging directly in conflicts, but without ceasing to be concerned about the tariff war and its competition with the US. Neither one thing nor the other disappeared from the map. The missiles in the skies of the Middle East did not erase other problems, including climate change, by the way touching the skin of Europeans and Americans with high temperatures and fires.

What about Brazil? With political disorders and public accounts in a state of calamity, threatening democracy itself, it is only possible to repeat the popular belief: God is Brazilian.

A 3.5% Guideline Would Require Large Increases in Defense Spending for Most NATO Members

Defense spending as a share of GDP, 2024 (estimated)


 

A chart of NATO defense spending as a share of GDP by country, showing that in 2024 most countries met the 2% guideline but most would need large increase to meet the proposed 3.5% guideline

Poland

4.1%

Estonia

3.4%

United States

3.4%

Latvia

3.1%

Greece

3.1%

Lithuania

2.8%

Finland

2.4%

Denmark

2.4%

United Kingdom

2.3%

Romania

2.3%

North Macedonia

2.2%

Norway

2.2%

Bulgaria

2.2%

Sweden

2.1%

Germany

2.1%

Hungary

2.1%

Czech Republic

2.1%

Turkey

2.1%

France

2.1%

Netherlands

2%

Albania

2%

Montenegro

2%

Slovakia

2%

Croatia

1.8%

Portugal

1.5%

Italy

1.5%

Canada

1.4%

Belgium

1.3%

Luxembourg

1.3%

Slovenia

1.3%

Spain

1.3%

Current 2% guideline

Proposed 3.5% guideline*

Many NATO members have increased defense spending in recent years, and most now meet the 2% target.

*The proposal from the NATO Secretary General as of June 2025 is a 3.5% guideline for core defense spending (comparable to the current 2% guideline) and a 1.5% guideline for defense-related spending, for a total of 5%.

Source: NATO

 DOS MISSEIS, BUNKERS AND BH PROTECTED

Legend has it that among the best protected cities in the world against radioactive cloud in the case of nuclear war is the beloved BH. Many Europeans who emigrated to Brazil after World War II chose BH because of this fear. This did not prevent a countryman of mine from building a house with an anti-nuclear bunker in the Floresta neighborhood. In fact, the house later became the headquarters of the Teachers' Union. And UFMG also had one of the most important nuclear research centers in Brazil, the IPR. But, none of this compares to the experience of the current mayor of the capital of Minas Gerais and a few other companions, who live with sounds and colors like a war, visiting the Holy Land. It must be a unique experience, but hoping that it is not translated into wanting to prepare Belô to build bunkers.

Getting into a war is easy, getting out of it, that's the point. I have no doubt that the construction of Iran's nuclear war capacity is a direct threat to Israel and its existence. The Shiite regime he assumed after the fall of Shah Reza Pahlevi, supported by the United States, is radical (we remember the invasion of the US Embassy at the time of Carter) and anti-Western. Armed to the teeth, as it is said in the popular, it exerts an anti-Western influence throughout the Middle East. He lost, through the defeat of his Hezbolah allies in Lebanon, a lot of space. But, it continues to be strong and feeding the Houtis in Yemen, who continue to send missiles to Israel.

Israel's military deceptions, including those of intelligence, were still not enough, even destroyed 15,000 centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium to produce atomic bombs, for the conflict to end. It's good to remember 8 years of war between Iraq and Iran, without a winner. We are in the first ten days, where the calls for peace and no greater engagement of the great powers, at least not publicly, are on the rise. Russia has its own conflict in Ukraine, China exercises its silent diplomacy hoping to win, and Europeans are rearming themselves with fear of Russia. And The United States? If you stay the animal eats, if you run the animal catches. But let Israel face Iran, they can't.

At the meeting of the G7, a group of the richest countries, in Canada, the final declaration called for the end of the conflict. Brazil was present and presides over the BRICS, of which Iran is now a part. In Lula 1 he tried to make an agreement with the Iranians, preventing nuclear weapons. He was rejected by the US. And now we can only pray that the Strait of Hormuz is not closed, and with that international trade and the flow of oil are not harmed. In the end, it is oil that will define the disorder of the world economy in this conflict.

 DOS MISSEIS, BUNKERS E BH PROTEGIDA

 

Conta a lenda que entre as cidades mais bem protegidas do mundo contra nuvem radioativa no caso de guerra nuclear está a querida BH. Muitos europeus que emigraram para Brasil após a Segunda Guerra escolheram BH por causa desse medo. Isso não impediu um conterrâneo meu de construir no bairro de Floresta uma casa com bunker anti-nuclear. Aliás, a casa virou depois a sede do Sindicato de Professores. E a UFMG também teve um dos mais importantes centros de pesquisas nucleares no Brasil, o IPR. Mas, nada disso se compara à vivência do atual alcalde da capital mineira e mais alguns companheiros, que vivem com sons e em cores como é uma guerra, visitando a Terra Santa. Deve ser uma experiência ímpar, mas esperando que não seja traduzida em querer preparar Belô para construir bunkers.

Entrar em uma guerra, é fácil, sair dela, eis a questão. Não tenho nenhuma dúvida de que a construção da capacidade bélica nuclear do Irã é uma ameaça direta a Israel e à sua existência. O regime dos xiitas que assumiu após a derrocada do Xá Reza Pahlevi, apoiado pelos Estados Unidos, é radical (lembramos da invasão daEmbaixada norte-americana na época de Carter) e anti-ocidente. Armado até os dentes, como se diz no popular, exerce uma influência anti-ocidental em todo o Oriente Médio. Perdeu, através da derrota de seus aliados do Hezbolah no Líbano, bastante espaço. Mas, continua sendo forte e alimentando os Houtis no Iemen, que continuam enviando mísseis para Israel.

Os logros militares de Israel, incluindo aí os da inteligência, ainda não foram suficientes, mesmo destruído 15 mil centrífugas para o enriquecimento de urânio para produzir bombas atômicas, para o conflito terminar. É bom relembrar 8 anos de guerra entre Iraque e Irã, sem vencedor. Estamos nos primeiros dez dias, onde os apelos à paz e sem engajamento maior das grandes potências, pelo menos não publicamente, estão em alta. A Rússia tem seu próprio conflito na Ucrânia, a China exerce sua diplomacia silenciosa esperando ganhar, e os europeus estão se rearmando com receio de Rússia. E Estados Unidos? Se ficar o bicho come, se correr o bicho pega. Mas, deixar Israel enfrentar Irã, não podem.

No encontro do G7, grupo dos países mais ricos, no Canadá, a declaração final pediu o fim do conflito. O Brasil estava presente e preside os BRICS, dos quais o Irã agora faz parte. No Lula 1 tentou fazer um acordo com os iranianos, impedindo armas nucleares. Foi rechaçado pelos EUA. E agora só nos cabe rezar para que o estreito de Hormuz não esteja fechado, e com isso o comércio internacional e o fluxo de petróleo não sejam prejudicados. No final é o petróleo que vai definir o desarranjo da economia mundial neste conflito.

 FROM HERE AND THERE, from Slovenia to Brazil

For those who came to Brazil in 1960, inauguration of Brasilia, end of the JK era, beginning of the automotive industry, election of Jânio Quadros with broom, of a socialist Yugoslavia, making a reflection of such a radical change is almost an obligation. While the country where I came from disappeared, and the piece of where we are became, with its 25,000 km2 and two million inhabitants, an independent country, Slovenia, going through an armed conflict and a separation process, Brazil stayed where it always was: there was no external conflict and not a millimeter of territory moved. And a place without war has a lot of value.

There, Slovenia joined the EU, NATO, military alliance, and all multilateral institutions, managing not only to chair the UN Security Council twice, and the EU itself, but to be highlighted in these days at the conference on the sea in France, according to the newspaper Le Monde, even though it has only 42 km of coastline. Brazil has 8,500 km, plus the largest river in the world.

Comparing a territorial giant like Brazil with a country where politicians and even diplomats always insist on saying "we are small" does not lead anywhere. But there are some realities that shape the future, which can serve for reflection.

The first Slovenes arrived in Brazil 140 years ago. The country still receives immigrants today, but even so its population of 210 million is aging. And there are 4 million Brazilians abroad. Two percent of the population. In Slovenia of 2.1 million inhabitants, 10% are foreigners. And a good part, Muslims. And there are 500,000 Slovenians living in 137 countries, a fifth of their population. And there is a lack of labor. Thus, the country imports Filipinos, Catholics.

The geopolitical vulnerability of a country embedded between East and West Europe, 500 km from the Ukraine conflict, and totally dependent on international trade and tourism, is very different from a continental Brazil. Sneeze in Moscow or cold in the German economy feel like earthquakes in Slovenia. And in Brazil? Almost nothing. The independence of decision-making in Brazil, even taking into account international scenarios, is very different from those who are in the European Union, where the bureaucrats there rule more in their municipality than the mayor. And now you have to increase your military budget to 5% of GDP and thus reduce your social spending.

It's not just the economy and politics that define how to live. But your people. And if you had to emigrate, then choosing Brazil was an excellent option. Thanks to my parents who made this choice and thanks to the Brazilians for welcoming us. We don't let roots have, but we plant new trees. And we plant. La dor va dor.

 DO CÁ E LÁ, da Eslovênia para o Brasil

 

Para quem veio para Brasil em 1960, inauguração de Brasília, fim da época JK, início da indústria automobilística, eleição de Jânio Quadros com vassourinha, de uma Iugoslávia socialista, fazer uma reflexão de uma mudança tão radical é quase que uma obrigação. Enquanto o país de onde vim desapareceu, e o pedaço de onde somos virou, com seus 25 mil km2 e dois milhões de habitantes, um país independente, a Eslovênia, passando por um conflito armado e um processo de separação, o Brasil ficou onde sempre esteve: não teve conflito externo e nem um milímetro de território se mexeu. E um lugar sem guerra tem muito valor.

Lá, a Eslovênia se integrou à UE, à OTAN, aliança militar, e mais todas as instituições multilaterais, conseguindo não só presidir por duas vezes o Conselho de Segurança da ONU, e a própria UE, mas ser nestes dias destaque na conferência sobre o mar na França, segundo o jornal Le Monde, mesmo tendo só 42 km de costa. O Brasil tem 8,500 km, mais o maior rio do mundo.

Comparar um gigante territorial como o Brasil com um país onde os políticos e os até diplomatas insistem sempre em dizer “somos pequenos “não leva a lugar algum. Mas, há algumas realidades que moldam o futuro, que podem servir para reflexão.

Os primeiros eslovenos chegaram ao Brasil há 140 anos. O país até hoje recebe os imigrantes, mas mesmo assim a sua população de 210 milhões está envelhecendo. E tem 4 milhões de brasileiros no exterior. Dois por cento da população. Na Eslovênia de 2.1 milhões de habitantes, 10 % são estrangeiros. E boa parte, muçulmanos. E há 500 mil eslovenos vivendo em 137 países, um quinto de sua população. E falta mão de obra. Assim, o país importa filipinos, católicos.

A vulnerabilidade geopolítica de um país incrustado entre Leste e Oeste da Europa, a 500 km do conflito da Ucrânia, e dependendo totalmente do comércio internacional e do turismo, é bem diferente de um Brasil continental. Espirro em Moscou ou resfriado na economia alemã se sentem como terremotos na Eslovênia. E no Brasil?  Quase nada. A independência da tomada de decisões no Brasil, mesmo levando em conta cenários internacionais, é bem diferente do que para quem está na União Europeia, onde os burocratas de lá mandam mais no seu município do que o prefeito.   E agora tem que aumentar seu orçamento militar para 5 % do PIB e com isso reduzir seus gastos sociais.

Não é só a economia e a política que definem como viver. Mas o seu povo. E se teve que emigrar, então escolher Brasil foi uma excelente opção. Obrigado aos meus pais que fizeram essa escolha e obrigado aos brasileiros por nos receberem. Raizes a gente não deixa ter, mas planta novas árvores. E plantamos.La dor va dor.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 OF JOSEPH ROTH'S BERLIN AND TODAY'S

Writing from Berlin, the capital of Germany, I remember the reports of one of the most important German-language writers, a Jew from Galicia, Joseph Roth. He was the correspondent of the influential Frankfurter Zeitung in flourishing Berlin after the First World War until he left in 1933 after the Night of Crystals, when the Nazis destroyed the synagogues. The reports and books describe a capital that who knows has returned to being but with the same fates of the past: emigration, right-wing extremist rise, threat of Russia and more war in Ukraine. And in the background, industrial restructuring with China threatening almost the same as Trump's United States.

Item emigration, in taxis, on the streets, in restaurants, you feel that, it's problem number one for German politicians. To rebuild the country after the war and to continue its growth, they needed labor. Of 83 million inhabitants, today 23% are emigrants, of which most, 1.5 million are Turks who represent in total with their descendants, German citizens, a total of 3 million. That is, almost 4% of the German population are either Turkish citians or their descendants. And they have 100,000 companies among them the most important German biotechnology company, BioNtech, discoverer of Covid vaccine. And of course there are mayors, deputies and even ministers. And Turks here are German Turks, and Kebab became typical German food.

The emigration problems, which worsened when then Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed the entry of thousands of Syrians and Africans and who today continue to ask for asylum and above all feed far-right parties, AfD, which already has 20% of votes, did not stop. German justice tied the hands of the current Chancellor Mertz who has just taken over, prohibiting the return to the border of immigrants who ask for asylum. That is, Germany remains a sanctuary of emigration, regardless of whether or not it needs this labor.

How to reconcile the new economic policies, especially with Chinese competition in the automobile industry, pillar of the German economy, with the imperative use of robotics, the Germans sold their best robot factory to the Chinese, AI and other digital tools, with pressure from emigration and more Trump tariffs, is a million-dollar question. Foreign investors continue according to the Germany Trade study confident in the development of the country that will put all the cards in the war industry to ensure its safety. Meanwhile, Poland gains a president against the EU and Mercosur agreement and complicates the entire peace effort in Ukraine. By the way, do the big ones really want peace?