FROM THE CHESSBOARD IN PLAY

Exactly two years ago the Palestinian Islamic terrorists of Hamas, from Gaza, invaded Israel, massacred more than a thousand people, took hostage and provoked a destructive and defensive anger of Israel. The week to remember the dead, wounded and all in this conflict of hatred, which puts human rationality in check, even with millennial civilizations. Negotiations for the end of the conflict are underway as well as the announcements of Nobel Prize, inventor of dynamite, in the areas of science and literature granted by the Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Next, the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded by the Norwegians and the White House occupant is eager for the peace agreement in Gaza to be concluded and he can be awarded the prize. As builders of alliances, bridges and under the star of peace and love, it was the conversation between Trump and Lula. How the conversation was in fact, few know, but it was on the day, time and with the agenda that the Americans wanted. It was also like that with the Prime Minister of Canada, only it was live at the White House. Simple as that, it's the White House that determines how things are and how they look.

But in front of the White House there is the Congress, where they don't understand to close the budget. A brutal game between the Republicans in power and the Democrats in the opposition. And with that comes the closure of several government agencies, even parks and museums, layoffs and chaos in public administration. And more the military intervention in public security in big cities, which the White House is carrying out, with the hunt for illegal immigrants, you see that solving the tariff problem with Brazil is not exactly the number one priority of the American President.

So, looking at the chessboard, you have two kings, and other figures. While not making checkmate, the figures move, disappear from the board, depending on the game one can even come back, that is, both parties are playing. There is also a simultaneous game, a single player, who plays with countless others. By the way, what's happening now: Trump against everyone.

And among all of them, we have the fall of the fourth Prime Minister of France in two years, in addition to the conviction of former President Sarkozy for electoral corruption. The French crisis, remember the sixties, deeply affects the European Union. It weakens, at a time when the conflict in Ukraine does not seem to end and the European economy has lost competitiveness. And of course it will affect the agreement between Mercosur and the EU.

The Pope visiting Turkey and Lebanon, it's surprising. But, being elected the first woman for the new head of the Japanese government, it is much more. And the continuous attacks on drug trafficking boats off the Venezuelan coast by the US are a worrying sign, because this will only increase. And it's with our neighbor.

DO TABULEIRO DE XADREZ EM JOGO

 

Há exatos dois anos os terroristas islâmicos palestinos do Hamas, de Gaza, invadiram Israel, massacraram mais de mil pessoas, fizeram reféns e provocaram uma ira destrutiva e defensiva de Israel. A semana para lembrar os mortos, feridos e todos neste conflito de ódio, que coloca em xeque a racionalidade humana,mesmo com civilizações milenares. As negociações para o fim do conflito estão em curso como também os anúncios de Prêmio Nobel, inventor da dinamite, nas áreas de ciências e literatura concedidos pela Academia de Ciências da Suécia.

Em seguida será concedido o Prêmio Nobel da Paz pelos noruegueses e o ocupante da Casa Branca está ansioso para que o acordo de paz em Gaza esteja concluído e ele possa ser agraciado com o prêmio. Como construtores de alianças, pontes e soba estrela da paz e amor, foi a conversa entre Trump e Lula. Como de fato foi a conversa, poucos sabem, mas ela foi no dia, hora e com a agenda que os americanos queriam. Também foi assim com o Primeiro-ministro do Canadá, só que foi ao vivo na Casa Branca. Simples assim, é a Casa Branca que determina como as coisas são e como ficam. 

Mas, em frente à Casa Branca tem o Congresso, onde não se entendem para fechar o orçamento. Um jogo brutal entre os republicanos no poder e os democratas na oposição. E com isso vem o fechamento de vários órgãos governamentais, até parques e museus, demissões e um caos na administração pública. E mais a intervenção militar na segurança pública nas grandes cidades, que a Casa Branca está levando adiante, com a caça aos imigrantes ilegais, você vê que resolver o problema de tarifas com o Brasil não é exatamente a prioridade número um do Presidente norte-americano.

Assim, olhando o tabuleiro de xadrez, você tem dois reis, e outras figuras. Enquanto não faz cheque mate, as figuras se movimentam, desaparecem do tabuleiro, dependendo do jogo uma pode até voltar, ou seja, as duas partes estão jogando. Também tem jogo simultâneo, um jogador só, que joga com inúmeros outros. Aliás, o que está acontecendo agora: Trump contra todos.

E entre todos, temos a queda do quarto Primeiro-ministro da França em dois anos, além da condenação do ex-Presidente Sarkozy por corrupção eleitoral. A crise francesa, lembre dos anos sessenta, afeta profundamente a União Europeia.Enfraquece, num momento que o conflito na Ucrânia não parece terminar e que aeconomia europeia perdeu a competitividade. E claro que vai afetar o acordo entreo Mercosul e a UE.

O Papa visitando a Turquia e o Líbano, é surpreendente. Mas, sendo eleita aprimeira mulher para nova chefe do governo japonês, é muito mais. E os contínuos ataques aos barcos de narcotráfico na costa venezuelana pelos EUA são um sinal preocupante, porque isso só vai aumentar. E é com nosso vizinho.

FROM MY LAND AND YOUR BACKYARD

The United States attacked three allegedly Venezuelan drug trafficking boats and killed the crew members. They transferred 6500 soldiers to the Caribbean area. They took the visa from the President of Colombia because he participated in a demonstration in favor of Palestine. For Brazil, only 50% of tariffs and a few visas less. They continue with sanctions against Cuba. They arrest hundreds of Latin immigrants every day and deport them.

And the icing on the cake: they give 20 billion dollars for Argentina to solidify its economic structure.

Historically, for them, we, down from Rio Grande, are, in our land, their backyard. We are fundamental to geopolitical and economic security. President Monroe's policy a century ago determined this interest, which was later the basis of Theodore Roosvelt's policy, 1901-1909, of the great club. That is, confirmation of the backyard. There were several other episodes, such as the Alliance for Progress, Point 4, Operation Pan-American, invasions such as that of Grenada, Dominican Republic, coups d'état, ALCA, Iran-contras.

The fact for us, in Latin America, difficult to accept, is that we are fundamental to the existence and prosperity of the United States of America. And the current government is demonstrating this unequivocally. In the Biden administration it was also, as is the case of unequivocal and fundamental support to recognize Lula's election and before sending the Secretary of Defense to convince the Brazilian military to respect the result of the polls.

The knot is on how to find the win-win path and avoid maximum confrontation. They are the largest investor in the country, they have the obligation to defend their strategic and economic interests. We have two million Brazilians there, 1% of our population, and probably a saving of the rich of more than 400 billion dollars. One hundred and twenty thousand Americans work for Brazilian capital companies there.

In the political field they can't afford to have anti-American governments. See the case of Mexico, a left-wing President, much more than the Lula government, dialogues and finds ways. Ecuador, Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia, El Salvador, are pro-USA. We have elections in Chile, which also did not confront, and in Peru. And the classic opponents Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua.

The plan to only assert themselves in "their backyard", especially with China and also Russia penetrating, has no sustainable future, including by new technologies and geopolitical division. There must be leaders who will find the path to development. While they gave 20 billion dollars to Milei, in a project in which few will earn a lot but in whose success no one believes, they could give 2 billion for the development of the region and would be more successful. There is a lack of leadership, there is an excess of arrogance and dialogue. And fight in the backyard, even of roosters, never ends well.

DA MINHA TERRA E DO SEU QUINTAL

Os Estados Unidos atacaram três barcos  alegadamente do narcotráfico venezuelano e mataram os tripulantes. Transferiram 6500 soldados para a área de Caribe. Tiraram o visto do Presidente da Colômbia porque participou de manifestação a favor da Palestina. Para o Brasil, só 50 % de tarifas e alguns vistos a menos. Continuam com  sanções contra Cuba. Prendem diariamente centenas de imigrantes latinos e os deportam. 

E a cereja no bolo: dão 20 bilhões de dólares para Argentina solidificar sua estrutura econômica.

Historicamente, para eles, nós, abaixa do Rio Grande, somos, na nossa terra, o quintal deles. Somos fundamentais para a segurança geopolítica e econômica. A política do Presidente Monroe há um século determinava esse interesse , que depois foi base da política de Theodore Roosvelt, 1901-1909, do grande porrete. Ou seja, confirmação do quintal. Houve vários outros episódios, como a Aliança para o progresso, Ponto 4, Operação Pan-americana, invasões como a de Grenada, República Dominicana, golpes de estado, ALCA, Irã-contras. 

 

O fato para nós, na América Latina, difícil de aceitar, é que somos fundamentais para a existencia e prosperidade dos Estados Unidos da América. E o atual governo está demonstrando isso de forma inequívoca. No governo Biden também foi, como é o caso do apoio inequívoco e fundamental para reconhecer a eleição do Lula e antes enviar o Secretário de Defesa para convencer os militares brasileiros de respeitarem o resultado de urnas.

O nó está em como achar o caminho de ganha-ganha e evitar o máximo de confronto. Eles são o maior investidor no país, tem a obrigação de defender seus interesses estratégicos e econômicos. Nos temos lá dois milhões de brasileiros, 1 % de nossa população, e provavelmente uma poupança dos ricos de mais de 400 bilhões de dólares. Cento e vinte mil norte-americanos trabalham para as empresas de capital brasileiro lá.

No campo político eles não se podem se dar ao luxo de ter governos antiamericanos. Veja o caso do México, uma Presidenta de esquerda, muito mais do que o governo Lula, dialoga e acha caminhos. Equador, Paraguay, Argentina, Bolívia, El Salvador, são pró EUA. Temos eleições no Chile, que também não confrontou, e no Peru. E os clássicos adversários Cuba, Venezuela, Nicarágua.

O plano de só se afirmarem no “seu quintal”, principalmente com a China e também a Rússia penetrando,  não tem futuro sustentável, inclusive pelas novas tecnologias e divisão geopolítica. Tem que ter líderes que encontrarão o caminho do desenvolvimento. Enquanto deram 20 bi de dólares para Milei, em um projeto em que poucos vão ganhar muito mas em cujo sucesso ninguém acredita, poderiam dar 2 bilhões para o desenvolvimento da região e teriam mais sucesso. Faltam lideranças, há excesso de prepotência e diálogo. E briga no quintal, mesmo de galos, nunca acaba bem.

FROM NEW YORK, NEW YORK

39 seconds in the corridor of a building, headquarters of the UN, where neither the escalator nor the teleprompter works, of an organization that refused the offer of a mega builder who later became President of the United States twice, the organization founded in San Francisco 80 years ago, changed the mood of Brazil's politics and economy. After those seconds, when the presidents of the USA and Brazil embraced, another 57 minutes of a speech passed explaining the Trump doctrine by Trump himself, when he a few minutes before finishing said he liked the lightning meeting with Lula in the hallway, liked Lula, and that the two will talk next week.

The surprise, which was not a surprise because the two diplomacies acted behind the scenes, which redeems Itamaraty from so many criticisms in recent times, was in the Brazilian delegation shown on TV, with Janja and Lula using their cell phones when Trump announced the meeting. That doesn't matter at all. The important thing was that Lula's speech was presidential and honored the country that always inaugurates the UN General Assembly. He defended his traditional convictions, multilateralism, the basis of our foreign policy, and criticized what had to be criticized. It was, in general terms, Lulinha peace and love. He even thanked, the author of these lines was moved, to the Jews who support a peaceful solution to the Gaza conflict. All that was missing was to wish Shana Tova, happy new year 5765, which we Jews celebrated exactly on the day of his speech.

Trump's speech was an accountability of his achievements in the aspects of national and foreign policy. He used harsh words, generally not used in presidential speeches in any country, about climate change, immigration, Venezuela, Europeans who buy Russian oil and gas, the mayor of London who is Muslim, former Presidents Biden and Obama. And he was mild with China, with his friends Putin and Natanhayu, by declaring himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. And very hard even with the UN.

The two speeches paradoxically put the world as it is today. You have to read them together to also understand, along with 39 seconds of encounter, how this world works. There can be no illusion of the full exercise of power and a little more by Trump and the USA.

It wasn't Lula who said when there will be a meeting with Trump to hit the pointers. It was Trump who determined. And now, even to the sound of Sinatra's New York to celebrate, the work begins. Preparing the agenda for this conversation, from which the two interlocutors should emerge victorious, is a gigantic job. Anyway, Lula, even if he doesn't get anything in relation to the tariffs, comes out as a statesman for the national and international public. And Trump, if he doesn't get anything, puts the blame on Lula. A lot of calm and clear definition is what interests Brazil, and not only the government.

DE NEW YORK, NEW YORK

 

39 segundos no corredor de um prédio, sede da ONU, onde não funciona a escada rolante e nem o teleprompter, de uma organização que recusou a oferta de um mega construtor que virou depois duas vezes Presidente dos Estados Unidos, a organização fundada em São Francisco há 80 anos, mudaram o humor da política e da economia do Brasil. Depois desses segundos, quando se abraçaram os presidentes dos EUA e do Brasil, passaram-se mais 57 minutos de um discursoexplicando a doutrina Trump pelo próprio Trump, quando ele uns minutos antes de terminar disse que gostou do encontro relâmpago com Lula no corredor, gostou do Lula, e que os dois vão conversar na próxima semana.

A surpresa, que não foi surpresa porque as duas diplomacias atuaram nos bastidores, o que redime o Itamaraty de tantas críticas nos últimos tempos, esteve na delegação brasileira mostrada na TV, com Janja e Lula usando o celular na hora que Trump anunciava o encontro. Isso não tem a mínima importância. O importante foi que o discurso de Lula foi presidencial e honrou o país que sempre inaugura a Assembleia-Geral da ONU. Defendeu suas convicções tradicionais, o multilaterismo, base de nosssa política externa, e criticou o que tinha que ser criticado. Foi, em termos gerais, o Lulinha paz e amor. Até agradeceu, o autor dessas linhas ficou emocionado, aos judeus que apoiam uma solução pacífica para o conflito de Gaza. Só faltou desejar Shana Tova, feliz ano novo 5765, que os judeus festejamos exatamente no dia do seu discurso.

O discurso de Trump, foi uma prestação de contas de seus feitos nas vertentes de política nacional e externa. Usou palavras duras, em geral não usadas em discursos presidenciais em qualquer país, sobre mudanças climáticas, imigração, Venezuela, europeus que compram petróleo e gás russo, o prefeito de Londres que é muçulmano, os ex-Presidentes Biden e Obama. E foi brando com a China, com os amigos Putin e Natanhayu, ao declarar-se merecedor do Prêmio Nobel de Paz. E muito duro mesmo com a ONU.

Os dois discursos paradoxalmente colocam o mundo como hoje é. Tem que lê-los juntos para entender também, junto com 39 segundos de encontro, como funciona este mundo. Não se pode ter ilusão alguma do exercício pleno do poder e um pouco mais por Trump e os EUA. 

Não foi Lula quem disse quando vai ter o encontro com Trump para acertar os ponteiros. Foi Trump que determinou. E agora, mesmo ao som de  New York de Sinatra para festejar, começa o trabalho. Preparar a pauta dessa conversa, da qual os dois interlocutores devem sair vitoriosos, é um trabalho gigantesco. De qualquer maneira, Lula, mesmo que não consiga nada em relação às tarifas, sai como estadista para o público nacional e internacional. E Trump, se não conseguir nada, põe a acculpa no Lula. Muita calma e  definição clara é o que interessa ao Brasil, e não só ao governo.

FROM THE AGREEMENT TO OTHERS, UE- MERCOSUR

In the midst of the United States tariff, the government is early celebrating two important trade agreements for Brazil, which are the conclusion of MERCOSUR's agreement with the EU and EFTA, Switzerland, Norway and others. These agreements came out more because of the needs of our partners to increase their business with MERCOSUR than for us to have the opportunities to sell more to these countries. The agreement with the Europeans, which met a lot of resistance, came out because they pushed down the cloth clauses that guarantee European farmers their privileged status without allowing us to move forward with our agricultural exports. More or less like this: if you want the agreement, that's how we can do it. If you don't like it, there's no agreement. And the anxious Brazil, negotiating for 25 years, wanting to show that it does not depend only on the USA, and before the Americans pressure Europeans not to make the agreement, it accepted to show how efficient this government is.

The agreement has to be good for both sides. The fact is that both Europeans and Swiss and Norwegians are better prepared to take advantage of the agreements than both Brazilians and other MERCOSUR partners. In addition to being our important business partners, they are great investors. Their companies survived the Matarazzo and many other companies and did not give up on Brazil. They learned to deal with bureaucracy, corruption, and the particularities of the market. And the profits generated in Brazil have always been important for the headquarters. And let's be clear, there are few countries in the world that allow the foreign investor so many facilities, incentives, money transfers, royalty payment and a market of 210 million people like Brazil. The gringo here is at home.

It is worth mentioning here the case of Norway, a kingdom with the largest sovereign fund in the world, a large investor in the area of energy and metals in Brazil, with much greater interests in the Amazon than Brazil itself. The Amazon fund, which also has the participation of Germany, is not to protect the Amazon for Brazilians, but to protect Norwegian capital there. Under the mantle of lamb are wolf policies, do not forget that the Nobel Peace Prize is given by Norway, which, either we do not understand, or we accept because some have interest.

But the most worrying thing is that we signed these agreements but we have no development plan adjacent to these instruments. We will succumb to the plans of stronger partners, even in the opening of markets. That is, they, with the crisis of their companies, which will transfer technologies and analog generation equipment to Brazil, will dictate our development because we have no plan but to clap when we offer them more facilities, more resources, more subsidies, more market. This is the reality of our future. And China quietly hopes that this will bear fruit.